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Date: Thursday, October 22, 2009
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FXST offers free Forex market analysis posted daily on our site. For our latest market info visit http://www.FXST.net/analysis-and-tips.html
The bulls are still in charge on a medium term EUR USD with the pair finding support yesterday at 1.4905 before marching straight to 1.5000 where we saw the market move from a 1.5000 bid to a 1.4990 in a split second. Half of those sellers were stopped out later on in the evening as the pair made a move higher to 1.5046 but with this morning's move back below 1.4967, stops is probably all they were. If they bulls want a chance of taking the pair to new highs then 1.4905 needs to stay in tact and a move above 1.5050 will confirm continuation of the uptrend. There is a good chance of intraday shorting before that at 1.5040 and long interest for the day around 1.4910.
Do bear in mind that we expect a pick up in volatility over the coming days and weeks so what might seem like a calm market when you enter the trade could turn out to be something quite different a couple of hours or days later, so employ good risk management with sensible stops levels. A break below 1.4842 will be a big problem for the longs and although it seems far away, we would only need a slight shake in the S&P and it will be there in a heartbeat. On that note the S&P 500 sold off 20 points last night in the last 45 minutes of trading, indicating that some of the profitable longs from earlier this year may be entering a distribution phase. This was confirmed by the Spiders volume (SPY - the S&P 500 tracker ETF) which posted its second highest hourly volume of the last 6 months and the S&P futures volume also showing a volume spike in that last hour, suggesting that some huge hedging was taking place in the most liquid instruments before the funds unwind their less liquid stocks over the coming days and weeks. Time will tell how long these EUR USD bulls really remain in charge.
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